The DVD war is over... but are DVD's on their way out?

[thehefner]

Well, HD-DVD is dead. Long live Blu-Ray. Except the question is, how long?

Netflix is putting out a box that will allow subscribers to directly download film rentals any time they want. More and more people (Steve Jobs for one) believe the future of film rental and even purchase is going to essentially be what iTunes is for music and CDs. I tell ya, thanks to iTunes, I almost never buy CDs anymore.

But how long until that takes effect? Is it worth the money to buy a Blu-Ray player and Blu-Ray discs? There are very few films that I'm actively desperate to see in high-def (THE FOUNTAIN is one, though), but like many, I have a huge high-def screen that's showing the limitations of regular TV and DVD.

I suppose I shouldn't worry too much about it, and take this as a hint from fate that I need to preserve both my money and free time for more important things. I mean, heck, I could just get a PS3 so I'd still have a use for the machine even once Blu-Ray becomes obsolete.

But then again, giving me a video game is like giving a bottle of Jack Daniels to a recovering alcoholic. Only less pretty. And we're right back to "devote money and time to more important things. That's kinda a major reason why you're finally quitting the comic store. You've got a novel to edit, two more novels to write, a play script to develop, a few comic scripts to consider, and constantly revise the Monologues before writing new ones. Your deep burning dream to play the drums on ROCK BAND for 'In The Air Tonight,' must take a backseat to your real work."

Comments

[tompurdue.livejournal.com]

My take: on-demand downloads require a LOT of bandwidth, bandwidth we're just not capable of doing without a lot of infrastructure upgrade. The Internet is just too flaky for a sit-down-and-watch-a-movie experience. That is going to make people leary of buying into a last-ten-meters upgrade from their computer to their TVs.

Netflix requires a 1.5 MBps for its download service. I get about 2.5, which qualifies, but barely. And it has to maintain that for the ENTIRE time I'm watching the movie; any glitch and things go kablooey. People just want the damn discs to play.

I think that Blu-Ray will be the last disc format, and it'll probably be obsolete in about 15 years. Since the lifespan of the device is probably about 3 years max, I'd say go ahead and buy one, now that it's likely that it will be the winner.

Personally, I'm not upgrading my TV until well after the changeover next year (since I'm anticipating a drop in demand one the big everybody-change-at-once event is over), and I'm not buying a new disc player until I've upgraded my TV. Hell, I just bought a new DVD player. (Two, actually: I hated the first one so much that I bought a second one, which I hate a tiny bit less, so it stays and the first one returns to the Target from whence it came.)

[adaptor.livejournal.com]

You're quitting the comic store?

[thehefner.livejournal.com]

Sure am, in mid-March. If I worked till May, I would have been there for ten years. Ten years at Big Planet (well, with breaks to go to college and the fact that I moved from the Bethesda store to the Georgetown location).

[adaptor.livejournal.com]

And will you write full-time? (Spacebarstill causingtrouble,my repliesmust bebrief)

[thehefner.livejournal.com]

Very good points.

Unless I hear a solid rebuttal, I think I will indeed go and buy a Blu-Ray player.

[thehefner.livejournal.com]

Write and tour. That's the plan. Write and tour. I desperately need the free time time to go somewhere private to read and write in quiet. Because if I'm gonna make it as a writer of anything, I need to have (sellable) finished products. And then, I'd ideally like to road trip between gigs.

So, yeah. No job for now.

(And what's this with the spacebar? By the way, do you have a webcam or anything like that? I finally found mine, and could perhaps do video chat or Skype sort of thing, to save on our long distance bills next time we want to chat)

[adaptor.livejournal.com]

Yes, now ask me ifI knowhowto workit.

(Here's a hint,ifI can't handle a spacebar... ;-)

[adaptor.livejournal.com]

Besides, I'drather meet you in person. With all the bopping around we're doing I don't think it'll take altogether too long.

[thehefner.livejournal.com]

I'm all for that. In L.A., I presume? Unless you're gonna make it over here or something. If we do L.A., I say again, let's look into gig spaces for me. I've got a cousin there as well, I can check with him (he was in NURSE BETTY and Radiohead's "High and Dry" video!). But I think I know you more personally than I know him.

[adaptor.livejournal.com]

If you come to LA, that'd be good but I'd rather we not aim for LA. I don't like it much here and wouldn't know how to show you a good time.

If, however, I move to NY...

[thehefner.livejournal.com]

Ooo! Which would be easier for me! And probably better suited to my show anyway.

When oh when might this be?

[adaptor.livejournal.com]

If I get into Juilliard, this fall. If I don't, I'll have to wait a year before being eligible for job-transfers within Warner Music (and by then I'll have my car and a whole lot more of my college loan paid off).

Just not loving LA. I don't get out enough, but I hate driving so I don't see that habit changing anytime soon. Plus I love a good subway system.

(But I must admit, Burbank is a little slice of suburban paradise. I walk to a farmer's market downhill and uphill there are palm trees and birds with exotic songs.)

[thehefner.livejournal.com]

Ah, but of course! Well, fingers crossed all the more.

I'd love to see the city with you. I used to adore NYC, but then I went to London, and... I dunno, NYC just didn't have the same appeal anymore. I want to fall in love with it all over again, if only to make the idea of performing there palatable.

[adaptor.livejournal.com]

No, I'm with you on that. NY would just be a way stop on the way back to London. My goal if I get into Juilliard would be to wind up in a few years as a writer-in-res for a theatre in London.

[thehefner.livejournal.com]

Hell yeah. And now we're back to the brilliant plan of doing London together for a bit. But that's not for sure time anyway. Well, hopefully we'll have a better idea where you'll be in the near future.

[adaptor.livejournal.com]

We'll always have Prince Charles.

/in a can
//tee-hee

[thehefner.livejournal.com]

hehehe. Oh, I cannot WAIT to go back there. I shouldn't dream about going to another city in another country just to sit in a movie theater, but it's the Prince Charles...!

[adaptor.livejournal.com]

I'd love to see you do sing-a-long Sound of Music. That movie lends itself to snark like nobody's business.

/And nun costumes!

[thehefner.livejournal.com]

Best get a pint or two in me first.

[tompurdue.livejournal.com]

The only thing I'd add is that prices will probably come down on them, too. DVD players can be disposable at $30. Blu-Ray is still premium, but it'll gradually come down.